Analysis & Opinion
Long-form analysis and opinion from CapitalWire columnists and contributing economists.
Opinion: The Neutral Rate Debate Is Missing the Point
Central bankers are arguing about a number they cannot observe. The more useful question is what the current policy stance is actually doing to the economy.
Private Credit's Moment of Truth Approaches as Defaults Rise
Default rates in the $1.7 trillion private credit market have doubled over the past eighteen months, and the sector faces its first real stress test.
China's Consumer Is Not Who You Think
The narrative of a collapsing Chinese consumer obscures a more interesting story: a generational shift in spending patterns that is reshaping entire industries.
Opinion: Index Concentration Is Not the Crisis You Think It Is
Concerns about mega-cap dominance in the S&P 500 miss the historical context and the market mechanisms that have historically resolved concentration episodes.
Reshoring Is Happening, Just Not Where You Expect
Two years of tariff pressure and industrial policy have shifted manufacturing investment decisively, but the destination is often Mexico, India, and Southeast Asia rather than the United States.
Demographics Will Dominate the Next Decade of Economic Policy
Working-age population decline across the advanced economies will reshape labor markets, public finances, and investment returns in ways that most forecasting has not yet incorporated.