Economy
Central bank policy, labour markets, inflation, fiscal decisions and the trade flows shaping the world economy.
Fed Set for Hawkish Hold on Oct 28 as Markets Price a December Hike
The FOMC is expected to hold at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, but futures put roughly 72%-80% odds on a further hike in December as CPI runs at 3.7% and the oil shock feeds through.
Tightening Sync: ECB and BoJ Join Fed in Hiking as Policy Divergence Widens
The ECB lifted its deposit rate to 2.5% in September and the BoJ is expected to hike in December, while Brazil and Canada ease — a divergence that is resetting currency and bond markets.
France's Borrowing Costs Jump as Budget Crisis Revives Eurozone Sovereign Risk
French 10-year yields rose 10bp to 4.89% with the spread over Germany near a 14-year high, as protests and a record $4 trillion debt pile put European sovereign risk back in focus.
China Beats Q3 Forecasts at 4.5% and Deploys Mortgage Subsidies Plus a Bond-Market Backstop
Q3 GDP grew 4.5% YoY, beating forecasts, as exports surged 36.3% in September; Beijing launched mortgage interest subsidies on Oct 1 and the PBOC unveiled a liquidity backstop for non-bank institutions.
Fed Signals Patient Path as Committee Debates Neutral Rate
Federal Reserve officials used speeches this week to sketch a more patient approach to further easing, with several suggesting the neutral rate may be higher than previously estimated.
ECB Balances Growth Concerns Against Sticky Services Inflation
The European Central Bank held rates steady on Thursday while flagging weaker growth prospects in Germany and continued services price pressure across the euro area.
China Rolls Out Fiscal Package as Property Stabilization Takes Priority
Chinese authorities announced a fiscal package worth roughly 3% of GDP, with the majority directed at completing unfinished housing and stabilizing local government finances.
Inflation Returns to Target Range Across Advanced Economies
Headline inflation across the G7 has fallen to an average of 2.3%, the closest to target since 2020, though the composition of price pressures has shifted.
U.S. Labor Market Cools Orderly as Job Openings Return to Pre-Pandemic Norm
September's JOLTS report showed job openings falling to 7.4 million, the lowest level since 2021, with the openings-to-unemployed ratio now at 1.1.
Tariff Regime Reshapes Global Trade Flows as Sourcing Shifts Accelerate
Two years into the current tariff regime, global trade patterns have shifted substantially, with Vietnam, Mexico, and India the largest beneficiaries of sourcing reallocation.